Risk-Prediction-Tools
Tools are useful and cost-effective for identifying high-risk individuals who would be good candidates for OGTTs
STOP-NIDDM – A regression model combining traditional risk factors for diabetes and metabolic syndrome components that calculates time to onset of diabetes; externally validated using data from the DECODE
FINDRISC – A tool by the Finnish Diabetes Association that predicts the risk of developing diabetes within 10 years based on traditional risk factors for diabetes
ADA – A tool based on traditional risk factors for diabetes; also available in Spanish and Chinese
NHANES III – A tool to predict the likelihood of prediabetes based on adjusted traditional risk factors for diabetes
STOP-NIDDM – A regression model that calculates time to onset of CVD; externally validated using data DECODE
SCORE – A tool developed from a retrospective analysis of data collected in European clinical practice predicts the 10-year risk of fatal CVD
UKPDS Risk Engine – A tool that calculates the risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD
ADA: American Diabetes Association; CVD: cardiovascular disease; DECODE: Diabetes Epidemiology: Collaborative Analysis of Diagnostic Criteria in Europe; FINDRISC: Finnish Diabetes Risk Score; NHANES: National Health and Nutrition Examination Study; SCORE: Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation; STOP-NIDDM: Study to Prevent Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus; UKPDS: UK Prospective Diabetes Study
The specificity and sensitivity of a risk-prediction tool will vary between different populations. This may be particularly true in tools that include weight or body measurements, as thresholds for these parameters will vary in different ethnic groups. Threshold adjustments should therefore be made, as recommended by the IDF. Some risk-prediction tools will calculate a person’s risk of developing type 2 diabetes, while others will calculate the risk of CVD (Link zu Unterrubrik CVD Risk-Perdiction-Tools).
Both types of tool are useful and cost-effective for identifying high-risk individuals who would be good candidates for OGTTs. In some cases, a high score on a risk-prediction tool – without an OGTT to confirm dysglycaemia – may be sufficient to initiate antihyperglycaemia treatment.
The specificity and sensitivity of a risk-prediction tool will vary between different populations. This may be particularly true in tools that include weight or body measurements, as thresholds for these parameters will vary in different ethnic groups. Threshold adjustments should therefore be made, as recommended by the IDF. Some risk-prediction tools will calculate a person’s risk of developing type 2 diabetes, while others will calculate the risk of CVD (Link zu Unterrubrik CVD Risk-Perdiction-Tools).
Both types of tool are useful and cost-effective for identifying high-risk individuals who would be good candidates for OGTTs. In some cases, a high score on a risk-prediction tool – without an OGTT to confirm dysglycaemia – may be sufficient to initiate antihyperglycaemia treatment.
